May Man Be Kinder in 2009

Alas the curtains will come down on 2008. For some more resolutions will be made only to be broken yet again as the clock ticks past the midnight hour of 2009. Indeed many will be reflecting on the days and months that have gone by. For those who have put in effort to do something useful, they may be looking back with fulfilment. Others, it may well be precious time wasted as they find themselves left by the wayside while the world moves on.

Certainly there were many challenges in these past months, especially in the last quarter of this year. The not altogether unexpected economic downturn shattered the dreams of many. Jobs were lost, opportunities missed and the luckier ones only lost their year-end bonuses. The painful tragedy of Dec 2004 is still remembered when the tsunami killed thousands and left many more homeless. Obituaries still fill the newspaper pages to remind of the passing of loved ones. Indeed 2008 may also be remembered as the year where names like Nobel Prize British playwright Harold Pinter and US singer and dancer Eartha Kitt will be missed. Then there are the many others, unknown but fallen heroes who died in the course of their line of duty in Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia, Pakistan, India including civilians killed because of senseless bombings by terrorists. Even as this blog is written, more are being killed in the Middle East as they will also be in the South African continent such as Zimbabwe, Sudan and Somalia.

Mankind is known to be great builders of cities and nations. Mankind is also known for its great civilisation, artistic talents and ingenuity in inventions. If the present carnage continues, mankind may well be better known for its work of destruction and mayhem. Let's hope that 2009 will bring good sense and civility to the leaders of the powers so that mankind can continue to build on its good reputation. That there will be greater kindness, concern and goodwill to all mankind.

War - a timely boost for nations in recession?

Once again the Middle East has become a battleground. Both sides involved in the confrontation are blaming each other. Understandably it is not easy to keep the peace in the Middle East, given the politics in the region. I recalled reading the Bible and the many hardships that the people had to endure because of their disobedience to God. I am here not to preach but to ask whether there is sufficient will power among the political leaders to influence their people to work towards peaceful co-existence. Biggers nations with different political ideology can sit and negotiate, why can't two neighbours?

It is indeed sad that barely days after celebrating Christmas, brightly-lit decorations, jingle bells, sleighs, Santa Clauses and carolling are replaced by the blazing of rockets, missiles, tanks and screaming jet fighters. The pictures on the television show carnage, destruction and death. The continuous replaying of these scenes do no more than to incense the people as they watch the same television footage played over and over again. It's called "Breaking news..." though the footages are more than 24 hours hold.

Then I ask myself where is the leadership in the Arab world? Or is there no leader who can influence the region because everyone has his own vested interest to see the other weakened. That countries in the region are fighting proxy wars using the Palestinians and the Isrealis as the pawns. Someone pointed out that there is indeed a benefit coming out of this whole conflaguration. Wars will generate demand for oil, weaponry, munitions and so forth, not to mention the post-war rebuilding of towns and cities. So the beneficiaries will only indulge in empty rhetoric so long as the wars don't come anywhere close to their borders. The war therefore becomes a much needed booster to create demand and bring economies out of a recession.

Stay healthy, stay away from the pills

A group of US researchers has raised an alarm over that older adults in the US who are popping prescription pills, over-the-counter drugs and dietary supplements in record numbers. Their concern is that these combination of drugs could be deadly.
Apparently more than half of US adults who aer 57-85 years old are using five or more prescription or non-prescription drugs. Added to this, 1in 25 are taking them in combinations that can result in dangerous drug interactions. With rising medical costs, it is not surprising that people are doing pill popping not only for self-medication but also in the believe that taking supplements would keep themselves healthy. With the Internet awashed with all kinds of advice on how to cure and how to keep healthy, and there is no lack of blogs and other discussion groups on health care, it is not surprising that people are just doing what they are doing. Indeed we are in the realm where little knowledge is dangerous.

If a study is done in countries in Asia, the result would not be far different. Perhaps the only distinction would be that those in Asia would add herbs and other local medication to the "prescription". It is not uncommon for example to find people using a combination of Western drugs and Chinese herbal medicine. Some hospitals that practised Western medicine seem to have succumbed to the popularity of Chinese medicine and allowed the non-traditional clinics to be set up. Even some doctors took up traditional Chinese medicine to augment their knowledge and prescribe a combination of both. While undoubtedly there may be merits in some TCM, the problem is that TCM medication are not scientifically tested. Hence there are no proper checks and balances on what's contained in the medication and their efficacy when given to a sick patient.

Public education is important if this pill popping culture is to be checked. The medical profession should debunked the myths floated by some who touted their pills are the ultimate protection for all illnesses. TCM should be scientifically tested and where appropriate they should be given the due recognition. This way the population would be better protected. And lastly, we should look into how to keep medical costs affordable. All the rhetoric about altruism and helping the poor means nothing if at the end of the day the medical bills paint a different story. For example I am told if you aren't able to afford a $100, don't think of visiting the public hospital for an emergency consultation!

My Wish for a White Chritmas

Joy to the World - calls out the carollers along busy Orchard Road in Singapore. The branches on the trees swayed as if in response to the call, as the dangling bright lights littered the tree tops. Groups of tourists on open double-decked buses added even more glare to the over-exposed lighting as they popped their flashes with their cameras. Traffic came to a near standstill, as merrymakers, holidaymakers and all others thronged the two-kilometre stretch of one-way traffic all the way towards the city front where Suntec City is located.

I took courage and joined the bustling crowd of merrymakers, inching my way through to soak myself into the Christmas spirit. Though the crowds were just as thick as it was in previous years, the mood was somewhat sombre. Merrily people still posed for photographs at the various stalls set up by Christian groups to promote the message of the birth of Jesus Christ. The retail outlets competed with their giant Christmas trees and colourful decors. One other sign that a shopper wouldn't miss when visiting the retail malls is the sign that flount the word: Discount or Sale. Such sales gimmicks were unnecessary in the better years. Sales were only held after Christmas, on Boxing Day.

Christmas was a special time for me when I was about 10 years old. A stopover at the Robinson's then in the heart of the business centre at Raffles Place was a must. I would spend a good hour alone musing about the toyland, constantly on the look out for the sales lady for fear that she would notice that I was only there to play with the toys. The huge electric train set, complete with tunnels, stations and train crossing was certainly a key attraction for many children.

Today, visit Robinson's is a far cry from that good ole days, as they called it. Even the background music is not a traditional carol but a jazz tune sprinkled with the jingling of bells. The decor and the atmosphere certainly reflected a changed era...and indeed Robinson's has changed in ownership. To satisfy my thirst for some good traditional Christmas carols, I ventured out to the rest of Orchard Road, and I heard someone singing the line "...may your days be merry and bright". And I thought how I wish all Christmases may be white!

Obama's Young Team

The team of key office bearers announced by President-elect Obama is indeed something to watch when the New Year unfolds. The average age is about 55 years and this group will certainly bring a new perspective to the White House. In fact this is about the first time that the White House will be steered by such a large group of post-War leaders whose experiences and perspectives will hopefully bring a new freshness into US role as a leader in world politics.

Hitherto the US has been brandishing its might and roared at anyone who gets in its way. No doubt the US has shown its willingness to sit on the negotiating table in several instances, and North Korea nuclear talks is one good example, but its patience often fall short after a while. Dealing with others in the past by dangling aid and other incentives might have worked, but not so for Pyongyang whose pygmied leader seems to apply a different brand of negotiation skills. The mainland Chinese were famous to the point of notoriety for delaying in coming to an amicable conclusion. They would procrastinating in the hope that the opposite party would eventually give in out of frustration. The Koreans are worse. They don't show what they are willing to put on the table and you end up getting frustrated for coming to the table to talk. Suffice to say, there would have been Think Tanks who would have studied the psychology and the techniques of the Korean negotiating style to be able to advise the US negotiators a key that would fit the hole to open up Pyongyang. However, so far this seems to have eluded the Americans. I had occasion to negotiate in a trade dispute with a South Korean. Certainly there is a difference between the northerners and the southerners, but if the techniques adopted by the south is anything to come by, I can understand the difficulties face by the US nuclear negotiators. The stand taken by my counterparty was that their position was non-negotiable, and there was no such thing as a win-win outcome.

Perhaps Obama's young team would have some tricks up their sleeves that may well undo what the outcoming US administration has not succeeded over the past years. Or, am I putting too much expectations on Obama's new team...

Putting a stop to high seas piracy

The decision by the UN to allow the pursuit of Somalian pirates on land is not altogether unexpected. These pirates are no more than a band of robbers and reminded me of the movie Death Wish, where marauding bands of gangsters terrorise innocent people. The action being taken by various governments have so far had very limited impact in curtailing their activities. The hide-and-seek game in a vast open sea makes it very challenging for them. This is one crime which requires the concerted effort of all peace-loving nations and yet the coming together of governments has been somewhat slow. NATO, India, the US have made their presence in the area, and the latest is China is likely to send their navy to protect their own vessels. Sadly there seem little or no interest from the countries in the South African continent - not even the Arab states though one Saudi tanker is still being held hostage at the time of writing.

The way to deal with the pirate is perhaps to let force meet with force. Blasting the pirates out of the waters will be a good deterrance to others. Arresting the pirates and bringing them to the courts may be a waste of good money for bad. The system of administration in Somalia may well see these culprits back onto their boats even before the change of seasons. What governments should do is to confiscate the money from these pirates and donate them to the needy and suffering in the South African continent. I find it almost like reading the comics each day when I open my newspapers to find news about pirates seizing ships, plundering and robbing almost at will. If nations can't tackle this somewhat "localised" problem, there isn't much hope to get even more nations together and try to tackle an issue like global warming.

Year end is a time to take stock

Year end is the time for spring cleaning and you won't imagine how much junk you have collected over the past 12 months. As I rummaged through the pile of papers and files, I couldn't but pause to think about all the ideas, plans and projects that didn't take off. Somehow things went awry and/or got distracted by other more pressing issues. It also caused me to ponder about how things look good when they were on the drawing board...but when it comes to execution and totalling the costs, then the gloss and shine just give way to the grey matter.

Sitting in my 11th floor room which overlook a busy road junction as I reflected on some of the papers, I recalled a proposal for a customer to work on a project that would have propelled them to the forefront. Internal politiking among the board members, and worse still, with a leader that's not quite willing to lead, made the proposition even harder. A presentation was made to the board. I went well as the ideas illuminated on the big screen via the power point slides. Questions were asked. Eventually we had to scuttle the project because what they board wanted out of the project was way off the budget they were willing to commit. It was a shame, as it was an opportunity that they missed. The goodwill and the value add would have far out-weighed what they paid.

Other papers pertained to people whom within the span of months have left their organisation, moved on hopefully to greener pastures. Suddenly I realised that how many old familiar names are gone. Times were still good at the start of the year and people were switching jobs like the game of musical chairs, except that now the music has stopped and many may find themselves on chairs with only three legs for support.

Soon another year would dawn on us...and everyone would be looking forward with joy...even if it is subdued joy. People will clothe themselves with new hope that the new year will bring - at least that's the best that they can look forward to.

Of greed and madness...

The financial industry is hit by another US scandal with the fallout felt as far as Asia..all thanks to Bernard Madoff. The whole scam sounds rather simplistic...giving high returns for investments. While hindsight may point to the many red flags that should have sprung up when his company was able to pay high yields during times when other investment houses were struggle, yet somehow this was overlooked. The answer is perhaps as simple as the whole scam - it is an classic example of "greed". When everyone was attracted to the returns, no one paused to ask questions. We learnt since early childhood never to take sweets from strangers and we should be on guard and ask questions like: what's he up to? But once kids become grown up, they forgotten all the basic rules until it's bingo! Whose to be blamed? Fingers are pointed at the regulators and at everyone else, except the CEO, CFO, and auditors of those firms who had invested in Madoff. When things get too good, invariably questions must be raised even at the risk of being labeled as being too faint hearted, or as one who is risk aversed.

Talking about risk, it must be a real shocker for outgoing US President George W Bush when he was bushwhacked by an Iraqi journalist who threw not one but two shoes at him during a press conference. Apparently this journalsit is mad with the President and is making his feelings known to the whole. Isn't it a hair-raising experience to see how someone can throw two shoes before being manhandled. Imagine if it was a knife or a gun, two or three shots would have been fired before the attacker was pinned down. Doesn't that raise the question: where were the security men? Did they respond too slowly? Were they stationed at the wrong place? Was the President's bodyguard too slow in rushing up to him to protect him? The video showed someone going to the President who gesticulated that he was fine...but that was only after the assilant had thrown two shoes at the President. Where was all the President's men?

Human Rights Abuses

Two dozen people protested outside China's Foreign Ministry to mark the 60th anniversary of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The end result was obvious in that they were all bundled onto buses and taken away. The significance of the event was not how they demonstrated or were arrested but that numbers who took to the street to voice their indignation. Governments every where tended to have a bad perception of humam right advocates. Many see them as "trouble makers" and others classify them as a "threat" to political stability. It is indeed a shame that basic rights are not widely followed by countries who are not just members of the United Nations but even those who sit on the Security Council. While I am not advocating that one should take to the streets to push for governments to pay more attention to human rights issue, I think the UN body should revisit the charter and look at how this matter can be given a new dressing and made more palatable to its wider membership.

There are so many countries where governments abuse their power and steam-rolled their way through to get things done to their advantage. The events in Zimbabwe is pathetic and given the ills that have beset the world's economies, free governments are not too enthusiastic to put their finger in lest they be drawn into a deep bottomless pit. While politicians look polished in their suits and lavish office, large parts of the people are dying of cholera and suffering from starvation.
Sudan and Myanmar are other examples where human rights are abused in broad daylight. But such abuses are not just confined to the Third World. We see absuses in developed nations which makes it difficult for anyone to throw a stone at the likes of Zimbawe and Sudan since everyone seems to be living in a glass house.

Meantime the people must suffer, finding solace only in the writings in their religious books where sufferings is seen as an atonement for past sins given by the Greater Being. Suffering is also seen as a way to greater glory in the life hereafter.

Wash away by recession

The advertisements in the newspapers posed a constant reminder that the Christmas season is just round the corner. The trees along the main business district was also donned with bright city lights and colourful decorative buntings. Santas, with their bushy beards and bells are somehow noticeable absent...perhaps it is still too early. Certainly the mood is dampened not only by the economic recession that pervades across the spectrum of society but even the weather is not letting up. Amid the whole gloom, I believe not everyone is affected badly. I would exclude the rich from the list as they are obviously still comfortably sitting on their wealth albeit the values may have lost one or two zeros. Certainly if we look at the professionals, the lawyers, doctors, accountants and those who are holding senior management positions like CEO, COO, CFO, Corporate Secretary, General Manager etc they would still be well cushioned from the impact of the recession. Perhaps they may be denied the additional dressings on top of their main dish, but the fact remains that they would still have their main dish. The next level would be those who are in the middle management. Earnings may be curtailed by employers cutting back on annual bonuses and increments, but they too would have benefited from the employer's generosity with raises in salary in 2007 and all the perks that came with it. Their only fear is that they have to keep themselves employed because when the axe comes down often it would fall on the middle terrain. The lower rankings and those on the shopfloor are the worse off. Though their wages may be small, often they are the target of retrenchments by virtue of their being in large numbers. $1500a month each for 1000 workers is a lot of money for a struggling business, compared with $5000 a month for four senior managers. Besides during bad times companies need good managers to develop the business, or to hold whatever business there is left. The production or shopfloor work can be outsourced or be done by fewer numbers, working a little longer hours.

The signs were there before the tidal waves hit the shores. Yet many in postion of authority did not more than make verbal exhortations and became passive bystanders when the waters crashed on the beaches, wiping away whatever stood in its way. Could we not divert the workers on the shopfloor to other areas? Point them to safer avenues where they can take temporary refuge even though wages may be lower? Did we think about it at all, or did we fail to lift a finger for them?

Of wars lost and won

The contamination of Irish pork is indeed a case that requires more probing by the authorities. While I am not here to cause a scare but given the current liberties that terror groups are taking with innocent lives, it is important that one should get to the bottom of the issue to ensure that foul play if any is not the job of those who are bent to do evil in society. Indeed if they could puncture the WTC and cause a catastrophic loss of a few thousand lives, there is nothing to prevent them from looking at the food supply chain to contaminate it with poison. I wonder if there is going to be an end to all this evil doing. We once lived in an era where hijacking of planes were a continual occurrence. Tightened security at airports and concerted efforts by government to deny them landing rights eventually rendered the hijackers out of jobs. But the current wave of furtive planting of bombs to main and kill innocent people is making the job more challenging for the authorities. I then took refuge in Socrates and remembered his encounter with Meno in the latter's search for an understanding of what is "virtue" and what is "good". Are these evil-doers in carrying out their killings under the belief that what they are doing is good and virtuous? Or are they so warp in their beliefs that they don't see right from wrong and would simply "carry out orders"? Indeed even as I am writing my eyes caught a glimpse of the scrolling news that talks about the Taliban occupying 70% of the society in Afghanistan and also about the arrest of the alleged Mumbai mastermind in Pakistan. Where do we go from here? Will Afghanistan return to the days of the Taliban as the West struggles to put their economic mess in order? I recall reading some eminent person pointing out that future for warfare lies not in just going for high technology weapons to win the battles. Rather it is the ability to endure and survive after winning the battles that determines the eventual winner. Iraq and Afghanistan are two present day lessons. Vietnam was a lesson that was quickly forgotten. While the British won the battle with the Malayan Communist Party by winning the hearts and minds of the local population, the landscape has changed dramatically since those early days. Today, it is more than bread and butter. It is religion that is the platform for winning the ground. The Philippines is still struggling in its fight against the Moro Liberation Front. Does it mean that wars must now be fought with the religious teachers embedded in the front lines, to advice and engage the ground after each battle is won in order to raise the flag for the final victory?

So what lies ahead come 2009

Someone asked what can we look forward to in the new year 2009? Thought it was a timely question. Instead of making resolutions, let's look at what the future holds. Mankind is such that they take a keen interest to know the future, hence horoscopes have a good following even till today though the accuracy of their forecasts is not done scientifically. We also have soothsayers and fortune tellers who would gladly take you on an excursion into your future life. I have often heard of people who consult mediums to find out if they should do this, that or the other. But dabbling in the future can be a risky business. Analysts, economists and those who try to peep into the future can tell you. Take the current economic climate. How many learned economists and analysts were proven wrong. Nightly I watched the TV and could see how many of them would have lost their credibility if they were taken to task on their forecasts. The smarter ones of course put a caveat to their forecasts.

Never mind that, but coming back to what to expect in 2009? I think it would be safe to say it will be an interesting year where there will be a lot of anticipation. The first is the new Obama team taking office at the White House and how they are going to steer the US economy and with it the world out of the current quagmire. Their policies will impact on the Middle East politics but not so much for Europe. The European continent are more likely to be steered by Russia, France, Britain. In Asia, there are two major events to look forward to, namely the changing of the guards in Malaysia, and the outcome of Thai politics. The absence of the Thai King from his annual address to the nation on his birthday on 4th Dec created a lot of speculation. There were talks of spilt within the high office whether to support the yellow shirts or the red shirts. Malaysia's new political leadership will have to show how much influence it can yield to stave off a power grab by the opposition. Indonesia is another cauldron where a new political leader may emerge. The pot is brewing and some posturing by the key players are expected to be more pronounced in early 2009. Well even in Singapore there may be some interesting developments as it tries to steer itself out of the recession. China is not expected to see changes in its leadership and focus is more on economics than politics. Australia is feel an unease with the change in government in New Zealand. The conservatives are in after more than a decade of absence. Kevin Rudd remains popular in Australia though some reports said he lost some points. It is still early days for Australia elections.

Let's see how we fare after the first three months of next year with our forecast, or outlook on politics.

The first quarter of the year would set the tone for much of the rest of 2009. So it will be an interesting Jan-March if you ask me.

Looking at the brighter side

The wet weather certainly brings back memories of the season that we encountered earlier this year in the US. Instead of rain, it snowed unexpectedly. Fortunately we had sufficient warm clothes to keep ourselves comfortable. The carpet of snow was a sight to behold but the subsequent melting of the ice made it a challenge to keep your shoes and trousers clean. But really the weather can be a damper to your mood or not all at. Much would depend on your mental makeup.

Amid the lightening, I pleased to have had a good start to the day, with some good meeting with a client to advise them on their work. I hope also to focus on opportunities that may arise when the market picks up. The best time to prepare for new businesses is during a downturn, because some competitors may fold up, and potential clients would need a boost to get themselves up at the pole position. There has been much discussion by motor firms in US and Europe seeking bailouts from the Government. A poignant question was put to one of the European firms, namely, that in the past five years the firm has been in the red and how would this be justification for a bailout by the government.

Oh, I can't help but let my concentration be interruped by the sirens from an ambulance rushing to or from somewhere. Its also a reminder of the fragility of life though it also underscores the point that even in bad times, the healthcare industry may not be as adversely affected. The worse hit are those offering luxury or non-essential services like beauty care. But what about food? My son thought it was a good industry as people still have to eat always. However the key lies in whether you can cook as otherwise you will be at the mercy of the chef. Or what about being an important of canned foodstuff instead and you won't have to worry about the chef. Well it is then taking a different path...may be I should ask someone say a politician what he or she thinks about it. It is always good to pose question to people who are in unrelated professions to seek their views because they may be able to see things from a totally different perspective. I guess I may do just that.

Preparing for better times

It's been difficult times and how badly it is hurting the population isn't really felt so far. People are still thronging the streets at least to walk and walk if they aren't shop and shop for the Christmas season. Interestingly a senior union official said the real impact would be felt in the first and second quarter of next year when retrenchments can be expected from many more businesses. One news grabbing headline was about a major corporation whose employees were taking pay cuts in order to stave off any retrenchment among the staff. Ironically the chief executive took home more than $6 million in salary and bonuses. The corporation was quick to emphasize that the bulk of his income came from bonuses. With that kind of pay packet what would a 50% cut be to him? Yes, he would take notice of the cut but he could still afford a good turkey and chestnuts to roast on the fireplace during Christmas. True enough the news only marginally fan the stocks by rising a notch or two before it ended on the bourse in the negative. I hope this is a sign of investors and the man-in-the-street being more discerning and not be taken in by statistics and percentages, so that their vision would not be blurred by the wool.

One commentator has rightly pointed out that at a time of recession it is when people should take stock and look at how they can spring back when the economy turns upwards. Instead of just nursing wounds and complaining, we should be scrutinizing the horizon and see if there is a glimmer of light somewhere out there!