So what lies ahead come 2009

Someone asked what can we look forward to in the new year 2009? Thought it was a timely question. Instead of making resolutions, let's look at what the future holds. Mankind is such that they take a keen interest to know the future, hence horoscopes have a good following even till today though the accuracy of their forecasts is not done scientifically. We also have soothsayers and fortune tellers who would gladly take you on an excursion into your future life. I have often heard of people who consult mediums to find out if they should do this, that or the other. But dabbling in the future can be a risky business. Analysts, economists and those who try to peep into the future can tell you. Take the current economic climate. How many learned economists and analysts were proven wrong. Nightly I watched the TV and could see how many of them would have lost their credibility if they were taken to task on their forecasts. The smarter ones of course put a caveat to their forecasts.

Never mind that, but coming back to what to expect in 2009? I think it would be safe to say it will be an interesting year where there will be a lot of anticipation. The first is the new Obama team taking office at the White House and how they are going to steer the US economy and with it the world out of the current quagmire. Their policies will impact on the Middle East politics but not so much for Europe. The European continent are more likely to be steered by Russia, France, Britain. In Asia, there are two major events to look forward to, namely the changing of the guards in Malaysia, and the outcome of Thai politics. The absence of the Thai King from his annual address to the nation on his birthday on 4th Dec created a lot of speculation. There were talks of spilt within the high office whether to support the yellow shirts or the red shirts. Malaysia's new political leadership will have to show how much influence it can yield to stave off a power grab by the opposition. Indonesia is another cauldron where a new political leader may emerge. The pot is brewing and some posturing by the key players are expected to be more pronounced in early 2009. Well even in Singapore there may be some interesting developments as it tries to steer itself out of the recession. China is not expected to see changes in its leadership and focus is more on economics than politics. Australia is feel an unease with the change in government in New Zealand. The conservatives are in after more than a decade of absence. Kevin Rudd remains popular in Australia though some reports said he lost some points. It is still early days for Australia elections.

Let's see how we fare after the first three months of next year with our forecast, or outlook on politics.

The first quarter of the year would set the tone for much of the rest of 2009. So it will be an interesting Jan-March if you ask me.

Oh what a pity!

It didn't take more than 24 hours since I wrote about the manipulations in Thai politics and how the events have unfurled into an uglier scene. Bangkok international airport is closed and there is the prospect of an emergency being declared. What a shame for a peace-loving people...at least that was the impression I have of Thais when I met them throughout the years. Shouldn't they be focusing on economic issues which are more pressing than worry about blockades and political triumphs? If nothing else the events shows how mankind has a neck of overlooking the nicer things in life and turning issues into destruction and carnage.

I remembered the times when I was visiting Thai as the regional bureau correspondent with a foreign news agency. A Canadian chap, married to a Thai, was my ground man and he took me from the airport to the hotel. We visited many companies to introduce our organisation and the services we rendered. Thereafter, I made contacts with several Thai professionals and spoke with them regularly to gather information for my reportage. Bangkok is a dusty city but it has its own charm. Amidst the criss-crossing of vehicular traffic and the maze of side alleys lined with itinerant hawkers and others peddling their wares, the people are warm and friendly. They are a cheerful lot and gets more boisterous when they are engaged in an animated conversation. The city wakes up early and by about 7am the streets are crawling with people. Twelve hours hence, at 7pm another group of people throng the streets - they are the revellers and diners as well as shoppers looking for bargain. Famous Patpong and its bar top dancers are a must see for some. But there's more to Bangkok than just girls. The temples, river boats, Muay Thai and fortune telling give it the vibrancy and a mystical charm unlike other cities in Asia.

Singapore is too orderly, too sanitized so much so it looks like a "clean room" in a high-tech factory. I guess in that context it's "uniquely Singapore". Malaysia is too pretentious in trying to promote a charm which other than Malay is not indigenous to the country. Indian and Chinese cultures are bundled into "Malaysia, truly Asia". I am amazed at how this tagline came about. It's meaningless.

What can mankind do in order to live peacefully and enjoy the life that has been given us? Surely we have more important matters to deal with than to worry about a band of politicians manoeuvring to rule the country. Surely the APEC meeting is something that Thais should be focusing on more than worrying about who helms the government of the day - after all they have their King. Let's begin by looking at how can we encourage trade, tourism in order to create jobs, improve standard of living and promote knowledge through education and training. Let's keep that for the next posting on this blog.

Blow hot, blow cold

Em...how unpredictable life is. I was just talking about health and how to make the best out of life when I fell ill last night with a sore throat. Unwilling to let this get the better of me, I tucked earlier into bed and woke up later. The rest did some good, and I felt good enough to listen to the radio about President-elect Barack Obama chosing a new man to straighten out the ailing US economy. Asked my son Felix how did the stock market performed in New York last night and was told it rallied on news of the bailout for Citigroup.

Got into office and there was another mail for me from a friend who was sharing investment reports by analysts who now say the markets are set to rally in Dec. If you follow these guys, you never know where you are heading. One day they pour water on any suggestion of a rally and the next they swear to their last dollar that a rally is in sight.

But I don't know much about this blow hot and blow cold, but I certainly still have to take my cold tablets to ensure that I don't become like the US economy. Took a glimpse of the webnews and read about the salaries of Singapore civil service to take a cut, and of course the snips will include those of the political leaders. Then there was Bangkok's unfinished political business by the PAD. I guess the only time these pawns are going back to their homes is when Bangkok is Bankrupt. How easy it is to manipulate people to fight proxy battles for the politicians.

Let's look beyond this week and we are soon in to the last month of the year...and I have a meeting with someone who advises on philanthropy. I guess it is more interesting talking to her as we will be focusing on the brighter side of life...the giving of funds to save lives. I look forward to that meeting.