Someone asked what can we look forward to in the new year 2009? Thought it was a timely question. Instead of making resolutions, let's look at what the future holds. Mankind is such that they take a keen interest to know the future, hence horoscopes have a good following even till today though the accuracy of their forecasts is not done scientifically. We also have soothsayers and fortune tellers who would gladly take you on an excursion into your future life. I have often heard of people who consult mediums to find out if they should do this, that or the other. But dabbling in the future can be a risky business. Analysts, economists and those who try to peep into the future can tell you. Take the current economic climate. How many learned economists and analysts were proven wrong. Nightly I watched the TV and could see how many of them would have lost their credibility if they were taken to task on their forecasts. The smarter ones of course put a caveat to their forecasts.
Never mind that, but coming back to what to expect in 2009? I think it would be safe to say it will be an interesting year where there will be a lot of anticipation. The first is the new Obama team taking office at the White House and how they are going to steer the US economy and with it the world out of the current quagmire. Their policies will impact on the Middle East politics but not so much for Europe. The European continent are more likely to be steered by Russia, France, Britain. In Asia, there are two major events to look forward to, namely the changing of the guards in Malaysia, and the outcome of Thai politics. The absence of the Thai King from his annual address to the nation on his birthday on 4th Dec created a lot of speculation. There were talks of spilt within the high office whether to support the yellow shirts or the red shirts. Malaysia's new political leadership will have to show how much influence it can yield to stave off a power grab by the opposition. Indonesia is another cauldron where a new political leader may emerge. The pot is brewing and some posturing by the key players are expected to be more pronounced in early 2009. Well even in Singapore there may be some interesting developments as it tries to steer itself out of the recession. China is not expected to see changes in its leadership and focus is more on economics than politics. Australia is feel an unease with the change in government in New Zealand. The conservatives are in after more than a decade of absence. Kevin Rudd remains popular in Australia though some reports said he lost some points. It is still early days for Australia elections.
Let's see how we fare after the first three months of next year with our forecast, or outlook on politics.
The first quarter of the year would set the tone for much of the rest of 2009. So it will be an interesting Jan-March if you ask me.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Looking at the brighter side
The wet weather certainly brings back memories of the season that we encountered earlier this year in the US. Instead of rain, it snowed unexpectedly. Fortunately we had sufficient warm clothes to keep ourselves comfortable. The carpet of snow was a sight to behold but the subsequent melting of the ice made it a challenge to keep your shoes and trousers clean. But really the weather can be a damper to your mood or not all at. Much would depend on your mental makeup.
Amid the lightening, I pleased to have had a good start to the day, with some good meeting with a client to advise them on their work. I hope also to focus on opportunities that may arise when the market picks up. The best time to prepare for new businesses is during a downturn, because some competitors may fold up, and potential clients would need a boost to get themselves up at the pole position. There has been much discussion by motor firms in US and Europe seeking bailouts from the Government. A poignant question was put to one of the European firms, namely, that in the past five years the firm has been in the red and how would this be justification for a bailout by the government.
Oh, I can't help but let my concentration be interruped by the sirens from an ambulance rushing to or from somewhere. Its also a reminder of the fragility of life though it also underscores the point that even in bad times, the healthcare industry may not be as adversely affected. The worse hit are those offering luxury or non-essential services like beauty care. But what about food? My son thought it was a good industry as people still have to eat always. However the key lies in whether you can cook as otherwise you will be at the mercy of the chef. Or what about being an important of canned foodstuff instead and you won't have to worry about the chef. Well it is then taking a different path...may be I should ask someone say a politician what he or she thinks about it. It is always good to pose question to people who are in unrelated professions to seek their views because they may be able to see things from a totally different perspective. I guess I may do just that.
Amid the lightening, I pleased to have had a good start to the day, with some good meeting with a client to advise them on their work. I hope also to focus on opportunities that may arise when the market picks up. The best time to prepare for new businesses is during a downturn, because some competitors may fold up, and potential clients would need a boost to get themselves up at the pole position. There has been much discussion by motor firms in US and Europe seeking bailouts from the Government. A poignant question was put to one of the European firms, namely, that in the past five years the firm has been in the red and how would this be justification for a bailout by the government.
Oh, I can't help but let my concentration be interruped by the sirens from an ambulance rushing to or from somewhere. Its also a reminder of the fragility of life though it also underscores the point that even in bad times, the healthcare industry may not be as adversely affected. The worse hit are those offering luxury or non-essential services like beauty care. But what about food? My son thought it was a good industry as people still have to eat always. However the key lies in whether you can cook as otherwise you will be at the mercy of the chef. Or what about being an important of canned foodstuff instead and you won't have to worry about the chef. Well it is then taking a different path...may be I should ask someone say a politician what he or she thinks about it. It is always good to pose question to people who are in unrelated professions to seek their views because they may be able to see things from a totally different perspective. I guess I may do just that.
Preparing for better times
It's been difficult times and how badly it is hurting the population isn't really felt so far. People are still thronging the streets at least to walk and walk if they aren't shop and shop for the Christmas season. Interestingly a senior union official said the real impact would be felt in the first and second quarter of next year when retrenchments can be expected from many more businesses. One news grabbing headline was about a major corporation whose employees were taking pay cuts in order to stave off any retrenchment among the staff. Ironically the chief executive took home more than $6 million in salary and bonuses. The corporation was quick to emphasize that the bulk of his income came from bonuses. With that kind of pay packet what would a 50% cut be to him? Yes, he would take notice of the cut but he could still afford a good turkey and chestnuts to roast on the fireplace during Christmas. True enough the news only marginally fan the stocks by rising a notch or two before it ended on the bourse in the negative. I hope this is a sign of investors and the man-in-the-street being more discerning and not be taken in by statistics and percentages, so that their vision would not be blurred by the wool.
One commentator has rightly pointed out that at a time of recession it is when people should take stock and look at how they can spring back when the economy turns upwards. Instead of just nursing wounds and complaining, we should be scrutinizing the horizon and see if there is a glimmer of light somewhere out there!
One commentator has rightly pointed out that at a time of recession it is when people should take stock and look at how they can spring back when the economy turns upwards. Instead of just nursing wounds and complaining, we should be scrutinizing the horizon and see if there is a glimmer of light somewhere out there!
Sunday, November 30, 2008
An interesting homily
Over the weekend I heard an interesting homily and I thought how true it is that mankind is such that much of what we are suffering from is our own doing. AIDS for one is our own doing. The subprime and related financial crisis are our own doing. And I guess mankind has always been destructive. As we invent something new, we will eventually end up victims of our own inventions. So I thought to myself, if I should come up with any new idea, I will first examine if it will in any way destroy myself, and what can I do to neutralise that destructive element.
Even as I was writing I can't help but be distracted by the large number of editorial space devoted to the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks, and suddenly the economic crisis became a backseat passenger. In fact the economic crisis is almost forgotten, as the media also prepares readers for the events that would unfold in Thailand.
I decided to turn my mind to the weekend impending marathon. While I won't be a competitor I certainly am a firm believer of good health. I noticed an increasing number of eager beavers running up and down the coastline and assumed that they were training for the big run. I huffed and puffed, but realised that there was no way for me to keep abreast of these runners whose legs seem to gallop like the horse. Their stamina appear unlimited in supply and I was contend with running two kilometres. I guess not many people would appreciate the joy of running and some may even complain that it is boring. However, running with iPod in your ears under the starry eyes of the night sky is but a joy. I remembered once someone told me how he would always bring his running gear when he travels abroad so that he could run in the different parks around the world. Well though I am not a great swimmer I recalled doing that when I was headed for Hawaii. I brought my swim wear and got myself into the waters off Waikiki beach. At least I thought I could say I swam on that famous waters!
Even as I was writing I can't help but be distracted by the large number of editorial space devoted to the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks, and suddenly the economic crisis became a backseat passenger. In fact the economic crisis is almost forgotten, as the media also prepares readers for the events that would unfold in Thailand.
I decided to turn my mind to the weekend impending marathon. While I won't be a competitor I certainly am a firm believer of good health. I noticed an increasing number of eager beavers running up and down the coastline and assumed that they were training for the big run. I huffed and puffed, but realised that there was no way for me to keep abreast of these runners whose legs seem to gallop like the horse. Their stamina appear unlimited in supply and I was contend with running two kilometres. I guess not many people would appreciate the joy of running and some may even complain that it is boring. However, running with iPod in your ears under the starry eyes of the night sky is but a joy. I remembered once someone told me how he would always bring his running gear when he travels abroad so that he could run in the different parks around the world. Well though I am not a great swimmer I recalled doing that when I was headed for Hawaii. I brought my swim wear and got myself into the waters off Waikiki beach. At least I thought I could say I swam on that famous waters!
Saturday, November 29, 2008
An intellectual gathering
Its been refreshing to have a gathering among good people to have a free exchange of ideas on various issues particularly on the changing financial landscape. Such views as the future of the US financial institutions which are household names, and the likely outcomes of the current aftermath were discussed over a round of good Italian food and wines. It only people from different professions could gather and have more such exchanges then the community could benefit from the outcomes. Alas we live in a world where invariably those who hold the positions think that they know best and hence everyone is made to work within that framework. Why didn't someone stand up and offered a change one may ask? The cost of doing so would be too great, some would say. Others find it the opportunity cost would be too great to give up something where they are benefiting albeit only a fraction of the whole pie. Nonetheless people are inclined to flow with the tide especially if all is at least on the surface seem well. It is like someone coming up to challenge why should we drive on the right side of the road instead of the left. What benefit is there since if any change is made, you to would need to be subjected to all the inconveniences to be retrained. So most people would then focus on their bread and butter and their own businesses and make the most money out of it; and leave others to make their own money in their own way. No point playing the modern day Plato and in the process lose your life, only to be read and admired by future generations.
This then raises the question in a modern day society where everyone is self sufficient, highly educated or skilled, would it then be necessary to buy a life insurance so that your children can be beneficiaries. In the first place, the children are often having their own careers and their own income, and they may find having to benefit from a large insurance bequest may only be a thorn in sibling relationship. Someone may be eyeing a larger pie or the estate if not equally divided may cause the siblings to split up in the process. Hence, it is not surprising that policyholders are cashing out once they think their their children are no longer financially dependent on them for a living. The estate would only be useful if the children are not well off or well educated to be able to sufficiently stand on their own feet. Well that's a thought for you to ponder if you are one of those with multiple insurance policies and you have grown up children who earns more than you did in the past! Besides with all the uproar in the insurance industry what is there to assure the insured that his beneficiaries may get anything useful if the company goes belly up? Think about that...
This then raises the question in a modern day society where everyone is self sufficient, highly educated or skilled, would it then be necessary to buy a life insurance so that your children can be beneficiaries. In the first place, the children are often having their own careers and their own income, and they may find having to benefit from a large insurance bequest may only be a thorn in sibling relationship. Someone may be eyeing a larger pie or the estate if not equally divided may cause the siblings to split up in the process. Hence, it is not surprising that policyholders are cashing out once they think their their children are no longer financially dependent on them for a living. The estate would only be useful if the children are not well off or well educated to be able to sufficiently stand on their own feet. Well that's a thought for you to ponder if you are one of those with multiple insurance policies and you have grown up children who earns more than you did in the past! Besides with all the uproar in the insurance industry what is there to assure the insured that his beneficiaries may get anything useful if the company goes belly up? Think about that...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Let's have some peace
What a day to see on the TV screen the carnage caused by terrorists attacks on Mumbai, India. Yet minutes later came an advertisement showing a cripsy green leafy vegetable in a dessert bowl, exhorting the values of eating well. Surely people who do bad things must have somehow crossed the path of good things in their lives. Surely they know what is right from wrong...or are they so engulfed with their causes that nothing matters any more.
Innocent lives are lost needlessly. Here I have a close relative who is fighting for her life, determined to challenge the ravages of cancer. Yet in Mumbai lives are extinguished because someone called the shot. What a shame to kill especially under the guise of a religious cause. Yesterday I thought of saving my thoughts about promoting tourism and trade to write about today. But alas with travel warnings on India and Thailand, there's nothing much that can be done about tourism for now until the dust is settled.
I have been discussing with a group of friends of what we should do over Christmas. Perhaps we should plan early and pick the bargains; perhaps we should go out and spend some money to help fan the economy in whatever little way we can. Maybe..maybe that's the way to enjoy this season of Peace. It all begins with each of us, doing our little things, in our own little way, and it will somehow sprinkle that same feelings onto others, like the sprayed perfume where the scent will waft in the air and cling on to others around us.
Should we hold a Do Good Day, which should be observed internationally so that we can bring those who have gone astryed back to the mainstream of life. It won't be too difficult to organise such a campaign. But someone was quick to point out that the media may not give it the ventillation it needs because is no drama and no sensational headline to offer. At best it will hit the inside pages. Perhaps it may just get a one-paragraph report, or none at all unless the organisers buy an advertisement. Perhaps I shall begin with myself and do something good today by paying a visit to my sick relative and say a prayer in the hope that like all good prayers they will be answered someday, in someway.
Innocent lives are lost needlessly. Here I have a close relative who is fighting for her life, determined to challenge the ravages of cancer. Yet in Mumbai lives are extinguished because someone called the shot. What a shame to kill especially under the guise of a religious cause. Yesterday I thought of saving my thoughts about promoting tourism and trade to write about today. But alas with travel warnings on India and Thailand, there's nothing much that can be done about tourism for now until the dust is settled.
I have been discussing with a group of friends of what we should do over Christmas. Perhaps we should plan early and pick the bargains; perhaps we should go out and spend some money to help fan the economy in whatever little way we can. Maybe..maybe that's the way to enjoy this season of Peace. It all begins with each of us, doing our little things, in our own little way, and it will somehow sprinkle that same feelings onto others, like the sprayed perfume where the scent will waft in the air and cling on to others around us.
Should we hold a Do Good Day, which should be observed internationally so that we can bring those who have gone astryed back to the mainstream of life. It won't be too difficult to organise such a campaign. But someone was quick to point out that the media may not give it the ventillation it needs because is no drama and no sensational headline to offer. At best it will hit the inside pages. Perhaps it may just get a one-paragraph report, or none at all unless the organisers buy an advertisement. Perhaps I shall begin with myself and do something good today by paying a visit to my sick relative and say a prayer in the hope that like all good prayers they will be answered someday, in someway.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Oh what a pity!
It didn't take more than 24 hours since I wrote about the manipulations in Thai politics and how the events have unfurled into an uglier scene. Bangkok international airport is closed and there is the prospect of an emergency being declared. What a shame for a peace-loving people...at least that was the impression I have of Thais when I met them throughout the years. Shouldn't they be focusing on economic issues which are more pressing than worry about blockades and political triumphs? If nothing else the events shows how mankind has a neck of overlooking the nicer things in life and turning issues into destruction and carnage.
I remembered the times when I was visiting Thai as the regional bureau correspondent with a foreign news agency. A Canadian chap, married to a Thai, was my ground man and he took me from the airport to the hotel. We visited many companies to introduce our organisation and the services we rendered. Thereafter, I made contacts with several Thai professionals and spoke with them regularly to gather information for my reportage. Bangkok is a dusty city but it has its own charm. Amidst the criss-crossing of vehicular traffic and the maze of side alleys lined with itinerant hawkers and others peddling their wares, the people are warm and friendly. They are a cheerful lot and gets more boisterous when they are engaged in an animated conversation. The city wakes up early and by about 7am the streets are crawling with people. Twelve hours hence, at 7pm another group of people throng the streets - they are the revellers and diners as well as shoppers looking for bargain. Famous Patpong and its bar top dancers are a must see for some. But there's more to Bangkok than just girls. The temples, river boats, Muay Thai and fortune telling give it the vibrancy and a mystical charm unlike other cities in Asia.
Singapore is too orderly, too sanitized so much so it looks like a "clean room" in a high-tech factory. I guess in that context it's "uniquely Singapore". Malaysia is too pretentious in trying to promote a charm which other than Malay is not indigenous to the country. Indian and Chinese cultures are bundled into "Malaysia, truly Asia". I am amazed at how this tagline came about. It's meaningless.
What can mankind do in order to live peacefully and enjoy the life that has been given us? Surely we have more important matters to deal with than to worry about a band of politicians manoeuvring to rule the country. Surely the APEC meeting is something that Thais should be focusing on more than worrying about who helms the government of the day - after all they have their King. Let's begin by looking at how can we encourage trade, tourism in order to create jobs, improve standard of living and promote knowledge through education and training. Let's keep that for the next posting on this blog.
I remembered the times when I was visiting Thai as the regional bureau correspondent with a foreign news agency. A Canadian chap, married to a Thai, was my ground man and he took me from the airport to the hotel. We visited many companies to introduce our organisation and the services we rendered. Thereafter, I made contacts with several Thai professionals and spoke with them regularly to gather information for my reportage. Bangkok is a dusty city but it has its own charm. Amidst the criss-crossing of vehicular traffic and the maze of side alleys lined with itinerant hawkers and others peddling their wares, the people are warm and friendly. They are a cheerful lot and gets more boisterous when they are engaged in an animated conversation. The city wakes up early and by about 7am the streets are crawling with people. Twelve hours hence, at 7pm another group of people throng the streets - they are the revellers and diners as well as shoppers looking for bargain. Famous Patpong and its bar top dancers are a must see for some. But there's more to Bangkok than just girls. The temples, river boats, Muay Thai and fortune telling give it the vibrancy and a mystical charm unlike other cities in Asia.
Singapore is too orderly, too sanitized so much so it looks like a "clean room" in a high-tech factory. I guess in that context it's "uniquely Singapore". Malaysia is too pretentious in trying to promote a charm which other than Malay is not indigenous to the country. Indian and Chinese cultures are bundled into "Malaysia, truly Asia". I am amazed at how this tagline came about. It's meaningless.
What can mankind do in order to live peacefully and enjoy the life that has been given us? Surely we have more important matters to deal with than to worry about a band of politicians manoeuvring to rule the country. Surely the APEC meeting is something that Thais should be focusing on more than worrying about who helms the government of the day - after all they have their King. Let's begin by looking at how can we encourage trade, tourism in order to create jobs, improve standard of living and promote knowledge through education and training. Let's keep that for the next posting on this blog.
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